This 2024 paper "Case Study: Use of the Hybrid Parametric and Expected Value QRA Method on the Keeyask Hydropower Megaproject" recounts the use of the P+EV and tipping point QRA methods on an infrastructure mega-project in Canada.
hollmann_bali_keeyask_study.pdf
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​This 2022 paper "Risk Analysis and Contingency Estimating for Class 10 Estimates" describes a realistic QRA method for Class 10 (long range) and Class 5 (conceptual) estimates. It uses a decision tree approach to consider multiple scope options or scenarios to better reflect the broad range of outcomes.
hollmann_class 10 QRA.pdf
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​This 2021 paper "The Case for Parametric Quantification of Systemic Risks for Transportation Projects" shows how parametric risk analysis predicts the cost overruns being seen in transportation projects. Overruns result not from bias or deception, but from understated contingencies resulting from subjective QRA methods.
hollmann_parametric_risk_transport.pdf
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This 2019 paper title "Estimate Validation and Bias Assessment: Ratio-to-Driver Method" describes a best practice for validating cost estimates using metrics (i.e., benchmarking). It forms the basis for AACE's RP 110R-20. Metrics require data; a 2021 paper on developing project historical databases will be posted soon.
hollmann_est_validation.pdf
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Below is a series of 3 papers from 2014-2020 titled "Variability in Accuracy Ranges: A Case Study" document actual cost growth vs. estimate classification for US and Canadian hydro, power transmission, and power projects. 
hollmann_power_cost_growth_2020.pdf
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hollmann_trans_cost_growth_2018.pdf
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hollmann_hydro_2014.pdf
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hollmann_history_of_cost_eng.pdf
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This 2016 paper titled the "The Early History of Cost Engineering" traces the history of CE from the 19th century to the founding of AACE. Arthur Wellington summarized CE's purpose in the 1870s: "It would be well if engineering were less generally thought of, and even defined, as the art of constructing. In a certain important sense it is rather the art of not constructing; or, to define it rudely but not inaptly, it is the art of doing that well with one dollar, which any bungler can do with two after a fashion.”
hollmann_chaos.pdf
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This 2014 paper titled "Risk Analysis at the Edge of Chaos" outlines how the cost growth of complex projects is often non-linear and presents a method of measuring complexity and using that measure to warn if a project is approaching the tipping point (the tipping point capability is included in the ValidRisk software.
hollmann_accuracy.pdf
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This 2012 paper titled "Estimate Accuracy: Dealing with Reality" reviewed >50 years of empirical estimate accuracy research. It made that case that cost engineers are facilitating management’s collective and sometimes willful biases regarding accuracy by using flawed, unreliable risk analysis methods. 
hollmann_alternate_methods.pdf
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This 2010 paper titled "Alternate Methods for Integrated Cost & Schedule Contingency Estimating" presented the recommended practices of AACE at that time, including basic principles. It points out that the most common method in use, "line item ranging" has been a disaster for projects that have significant risks. 
hollmann_risk.pdf
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This 2007 paper titled "The Monte-Carlo Challenge: A Better Approach" addressed 2004 IPA Inc. research that showed MCS, as being commonly applied in line-item ranging, was a disaster. It outlines for the first time the concept of "Systemic" risk, parametric modeling and other "risk-driven" quantification methods.
hollmann_best_control_practices.pdf
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This 2002 "Best Owner Practices for Project Control" summarizes research the author led at IPA, Inc. It is still the only empirically-based research that shows that project controls actually makes a difference. The resulting "project control index" is one systemic risk rating in later parametric risk models.
hollmann_dysert_escalation.pdf
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hollmann_dysert_escalation_part_2.pdf
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This pair of papers, co-authored with Larry Dysert, from 2007/2008 (at the peak of the 2004-2012 capex "supercycle") addresses methods of forecasting Escalation (i.e., the orphan risk). This evolved into the AACE RPs for probabilistic escalation risk analysis. It points out that published price indices do not track the prices of services that are bid.  
hollmann_estimating_systems.pdf
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This 1996 paper, co-authored with Larry Dysert, titled "The Evolution of Estimating Systems at Kodak" describes what was probably one of the most comprehensive owner cost estimating departments and set of systems, tools and data known to the author.
hollmann_historical_data.pdf
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This 1995 paper title "Project History – Closing the Loop" is the first at AACE published on developing a comprehensive project historical database and developing and using metrics for estimate validation. This eventually led to AACE's RPs on those topics.
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